Today, on December 26, 2025, the state of Israel officially recognized the breakaway region of Somaliland. How much does this move change the future of the Somali state?
Facts: Somalia has never recognized Israel for 65 years since its independence in 1960. Moreover, Somalia has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinian question. As such, state-to-state recognition is a political calculus and depends on where states find their national interest. Israel, largely a pariah state, conducts predatory politics. And this current move could be part of such a policy by Israel.
The new geopolitics of the region aligns Israel with the UAE and Ethiopia, while Somalia is part of the Red Sea consortium led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Qatar, known not to have a good relationship with Israel, are supposedly benefactors of Somalia. Turkey has signed a multifaceted treaty with Somalia, including one that protects the sovereignty of Somalia’s airspace, sea, and land. Whether the tenant is under that treaty will kick in remains to be seen. Also, Egypt, not known for action or meaningful support to its friends, is Somalia’s friend. How Egypt can help is not certain, but it can be guided as amounting to less or nothing.
Analysis: Israel could be followed by Ethiopia. The late PM of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, said: he will not be the first, but the second to recognize Somaliland. Will PM Abiy, who has flirted with the 2024 MOU, now be collecting dust in the Foreign Ministry’s shelves, or be the next? Time will tell. But it is in the interest of regional stability for Ethiopia not to champ the boat Israel is riding. Neither is this much to offer the state of Israel.
However, many speculate that the UAE, a close friend of Israel and one of the architects of the Abraham Accords, will follow in Israel’s footsteps. Although not certain, Mr. Netanyahu likely had a preliminary consultation with the US on the matter. Whether the Trump administration will go along or respect Somalia’s sovereignty is anyone’s guess. America recognized Somalia in 1960.
What are Mogadishu’s options? It is difficult to say that while the UAE and other foreign hands are undoing Somalia, the first thing HSM needs to do is to bring Somalia’s leadership together for consultation and for a more unifying action. Also, Mogadishu is expected to certainly engage its allies, the AU, UN, and Arab League. Ironically, many members of the Arab League are also signatories to the Abraham Accords, the tantalizing issue Natenhahu intends to bring to Washington as part of his effort to seek support for his move on Somaliland. On its part, Somaliland will double its effort to gain support from more countries both in Africa and elsewhere.
Israel has always conducted predatory politics in Africa. For example, it gave the Biafran Ibo sessions in the 1960s de facto recognition and generous arms supply. It went into an unending love affair with the apartheid regime in South Africa. It is also involved in the Sudan crisis. Therefore, it is safe to say that its action towards Somalia is consistent with its undignified predatory politics.
Compared to the past, Israel has a reach farther than it had in the 1960s and could have an impact on Somalia. In that regard, no one can deny that this move by Israel can negatively impact the Somali state. As for Ethiopia, if it decided to go along with Israel’s move, one cannot be certain how a port in an unstable region can provide a reliable access to the sea for Addis’ growing economy and population. A peaceful region benefits Ethiopia.
The issue of recognizing Somaliland is a new chapter and a major challenge to the AU and its leadership. At this point, no one can reverse Israel’s move. The question is, who will follow suit, and where would Somaliland land? Hargeisa is more hopeful today than a year ago. And it appears it has succeeded in publicizing its cause. On the other hand, it lost SSC -Khatumo, now renamed the Northwest Somali Regional State. While that is a major challenge, Israel can be an asset for Somaliland. For example, Israel is the leading country in dryland farming and can help Somaliland. But, it cannot bring worldwide recognition and the return of Northwes Regional State.
In conclusion, we will be watching carefully how the Puntland leader, who has lately flirted with their own secession, behaves. Ethiopia’s move is as important as that of Israel. The UAE can break or mend Somalia’s back. Meanwhile, Somalis are looking in the direction of Turkey, Egypt, and the Kingdom of Saudi. Internally, we cannot say much for Somalia’s middle class, which has consistently failed in the pursuit of local and parochial politics.
Lastly, the Somali Peninsula has seen many partitions: in 1928 by the quartet treaty of Great Britain, France, Italy, and Abyssinia. Also, in 1948, at the transfer ofthe Haud and Reserved Area to Emperor Haile Selassie. In 1990, the post-independence state had collapsed into the hands of a predatory middle class that is local and parochial. The same could happen in 2026, unless the Somali leadership in all sectors comes together and prepares for all scenarios.
✍️ by Faisal Roble.
