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As Iran’s influence comes under pressure, Houthis expand reach through Somalia

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A growing body of international reporting suggests that ties between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab have moved beyond limited contacts or temporary convenience.

For years, the relationship between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab was largely treated as a peripheral security concern, overshadowed by larger conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and the Red Sea. Yet a series of regional shifts over the past two years has pushed that relationship into the spotlight, raising fresh questions about the future of militant alliances stretching from the Arabian Peninsula to the Horn of Africa.

Growing evidence of cooperation between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab is increasingly being viewed not merely as contact between two armed groups, but as part of a broader reconfiguration of influence networks and security partnerships across one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.

The emerging relationship comes at a pivotal moment for the Houthis, who face new uncertainties regarding their long-standing ties with Iran, their principal political and military backer for decades.

As Tehran confronts mounting military and economic pressure and several components of its regional network face unprecedented challenges, the Houthis appear to be seeking greater strategic autonomy, wider room for manoeuvre and new partnerships that could reduce their dependence on Iranian support.

A growing body of international reporting suggests that ties between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab have moved beyond limited contacts or temporary convenience.

According to information cited by United Nations sources, recent months have seen Al-Shabaab fighters travel to Yemen, particularly to the governorates of Shabwa and Marib, where they are believed to have participated in cross-border smuggling networks involving weapons, narcotics and illicit goods.

Reports have also pointed to the presence of Houthi operatives inside Somalia, where they are believed to have provided training in drone operations, explosives and irregular warfare tactics.

Such developments highlight the strategic logic underpinning the relationship. The Gulf of Aden separating Yemen and Somalia is no longer simply a maritime corridor but has become a geopolitical space where smuggling routes, armed networks and competition for maritime influence increasingly intersect.

From the Houthi perspective, Somalia offers strategic depth that could help expand the group’s reach across the Gulf of Aden and along the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

For the Houthis, the relationship appears to be about more than cooperation with Al-Shabaab alone. It reflects a broader effort to redefine the movement’s regional role.

Having established themselves as a major actor in Red Sea security dynamics, the Houthis increasingly recognise that maintaining and expanding their influence requires diversification of their sources of support and leverage. Partnerships with armed actors and smuggling networks in the Horn of Africa offer opportunities to broaden their operational footprint beyond reliance on Tehran.

Recent regional developments have reinforced this trend.

Several pillars of what has long been described as Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” have faced setbacks due to military pressure and political change. Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, Hamas has been severely weakened, Iraqi militias face growing domestic constraints and the Assad government has been removed from power in Syria.

Against that backdrop, the Houthis stand out as one of the few Iran-aligned groups whose leadership structure and operational capabilities remain largely intact despite repeated military strikes by the United States, Britain and Israel.

That resilience has given the movement greater confidence and room to manoeuvre.

Rather than acting solely as a regional proxy for Iran, the Houthis increasingly appear to be pursuing their own strategic calculations and regional ambitions. Their outreach to actors in the Horn of Africa can be seen as part of a wider effort to build alternative networks that extend beyond the traditional boundaries of Iran’s regional alliances.

Al-Shabaab, meanwhile, has its own incentives for closer cooperation.

The Somali militant group has spent years battling the Somali government and international forces while seeking new sources of weapons, expertise and operational support.

For Al-Shabaab, links with the Houthis could provide access to more advanced military technologies, particularly in the fields of drone warfare and maritime operations, areas in which the Yemeni group has demonstrated growing sophistication.

Security analysts believe Al-Shabaab has shown particular interest in acquiring expertise related to armed drones and, potentially, more advanced weapons systems in the future.

The implications of this relationship extend far beyond Yemen and Somalia.

The prospect of deeper cooperation between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab is generating growing concern about maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Since late 2023, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have demonstrated the group’s capacity to disrupt global trade routes and force major shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times, costs and insurance premiums.

Should that maritime instability become intertwined with expanding cooperation among militant groups, criminal organisations and smuggling networks operating across the Horn of Africa, the resulting security challenges could become significantly more complex.

The danger lies in the possible emergence of a flexible ecosystem linking armed groups, extremist organisations and criminal networks, making traditional security responses increasingly difficult.

Instead of confronting a single organisation or identifiable threat, international actors could find themselves facing a decentralised web of alliances capable of adapting quickly to pressure and shifting operational tactics.

The evolving relationship may also signal a broader transformation in the behaviour of groups historically aligned with Iran.

Rather than relying exclusively on Iranian funding, weapons and political backing, some organisations may increasingly seek to establish their own networks for financing, arms procurement and regional partnerships, granting them greater autonomy.

From a strategic perspective, this possibility presents a challenge to assumptions that weakening Iran would automatically diminish the influence of its regional partners.

Recent developments suggest that some of these groups may instead adapt by cultivating alternative alliances and pursuing more pragmatic arrangements, even with actors that share only limited ideological common ground.

The Houthis increasingly embody this trend.

The movement has expanded contacts with a range of international and regional actors in recent years and appears intent on establishing itself as an independent force within regional power dynamics rather than merely an extension of Iranian influence.

Viewed through that lens, the growing relationship with Al-Shabaab forms part of a broader strategy aimed at strengthening Houthi influence across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa while expanding the group’s options in the face of mounting regional and international pressure.

For policymakers, the development may represent an early indication of how militant networks could evolve under sustained pressure on Iran and its regional allies, becoming more fragmented, more autonomous and potentially more unpredictable than the traditional proxy structures that have shaped Middle Eastern security dynamics for decades.

source: The Arab Weekly

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