U.S. media reports confirm rumours circulating for months: Washington & Asmara have been in talks over removing sanctions in exchange for greater U.S. access to Eritrea’s Red Sea coastline.
The timing is no coincidence. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis has made the Red Sea route even more critical as an alternative shipping artery.
Washington’s move also lets the U.S. sidestep the political quagmire of formally recognising Somaliland.
Additionally, regional diplomats say it sends a clear message to landlocked Ethiopia threats that Washington does not back any forceful bid for sea access.
𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐬 𝐀𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐚 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐥
This will certainly turn Addis Ababa towards Somaliland in partnership with Israel & UAE – particularly the Awdal coast.
Abiy Ahmed has been clear, Ethiopia must gain access to diplomatically or by force.
Although, Ankara has attempted to mediate, no solution appears in sight with the deal yet to worked out.
𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐁𝐭𝐰 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 & 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞
Disputes over the Nile river btw Addis Ababa & Cairo grow following announcements of three new dams known as Karadobi, Mabil and Mendaya in March 2026.
Egypt is a water poor country & relies on the Nile River for 98% of its freshwater needs. The GERD is already impacting this.
It’s likely Cairo will strengthen its alliances with Sudan, Somalia & Eritrea although complexities exist as the UAE is the biggest financial funder for Egypt.
Also, Somalia cannot solely rely on Türkiye either as Ankara has financial interests in Ethiopia & UAE.
SaudiArabia appears a key ally alongside Sudan & Eritrea.
Somalia must work on internal unity, talks with Somaliland & more cohesive foreign policy.
written: Sudtan I. Mohamed MA.
