As Türkiye’s CagriBey drill ship started his activities in Somalia waters, Ankara is planning to build an oil refinery which has capacity of more than 50,000 to 200,000 BPD.
Once the size and quality of the oil is determined via direct sampling and lab tests, which determine the type of the refinery needed, a financing model will then be discussed with Somali, Turkish and international stakeholders, often involving government bodies, major #energy companies, international regulatory agencies and local lawmakers.
On average, a medium refinery with 50,000–200,000 bpd capacity costs around $4-6 billion depending on complexity and takes up to 5 years before it’s fully operational, complete with storage areas and a tanker terminal. It would create direct employment for ~1000 Somalis 70% blue collar plus open 5000 additional jobs in the vicinity as “side industry” covering transportation, security, plastics, petrochemicals, recycling, housing, social services, construction, etc. Much of the oil would be exported around the world via sea routes, but new pipelines and or trucking lines would also take finished products gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc to the rest of Somalia and inland into East African markets.
At 90% average utilization 180,000bpd, such an enterprise could generate Mogadishu $7-8.5 billion of additional gross revenue per year based on moderate pre-Iran War oil prices, funding all kinds of development across the country.
We expect to hear the first official announcement for such a refinery in early 2027, and if all goes well on the financing and regulatory side, its construction to begin by late 2028
