Uganda’s withdrawal from Somalia has raised questions beyond AUSSOM’s funding crisis. Allegations of a UAE-backed deal to accelerate Kampala’s departure have brought Türkiye’s planned spaceport and offshore oil projects into focus, exposing growing geopolitical tensions over Somalia’s security and strategic future.
Uganda was the first country to send troops to Somalia, in 2007. Nearly twenty years later, on 30 October 2026, Kampala announced that it had begun withdrawing its forces from Somalia. The target date given by Chief of Defence Forces General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is August 2027: by then, not a single Ugandan soldier will remain in Somalia.
The official reason is clear: there is no money. In a diplomatic note sent to the African Union on 1 July 2026, the United States announced its decision to cut funding and logistical support for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Washington said it opposed a model in which more than 90 percent of the mission’s costs were covered by international bodies, and that Somali forces had been slow to take responsibility for their own territory. A 25 percent cut in the budget of the UN Support Office in Somalia directly affected frontline operations. As fuel, water, food and medical evacuation services shrank, continuing the mission became financially meaningless for Uganda.
But there is another reading circulating in Somali political circles, and it looks for the real direction of the story not in Kampala, but in Abu Dhabi.
“The message was not coming from Kampala, but from Abu Dhabi”
Throughout this year, General Muhoozi repeated the message of withdrawal from Somalia many times. Sometimes by claiming that the US was secretly negotiating with Al-Shabaab, sometimes by voicing his discomfort with the mission’s funding. Many observers read these outbursts as Muhoozi’s usual social media tantrums.
According to local sources, the United Arab Emirates paid Uganda, already positioned on the Israel-UAE axis, several hundred million dollars in return for withdrawing its troops. According to the local source, Abu Dhabi made Kampala the following offer: “We will give you the money you used to receive from the Somalia operation; you withdraw your troops.” The figure circulating is close to half a billion dollars, with investment and project pledges added on top.
According to the same local source, the UAE followed two paths to remove the African Union force from Somalia: first, it laid the groundwork for the US, the mission’s main source of funding, to cut its support; then, it offered money to the troop-contributing countries in return for their withdrawal.
The real target: Türkiye’s two projects in Somalia
At the center of this reading is the geopolitical rivalry playing out over Somalia. According to local sources, Abu Dhabi’s aim is to sabotage two projects that threaten the interests of states such as Israel, the UAE and India:
The spaceport planned at Warsheikh. The launch base Türkiye plans to build on Somalia’s Indian Ocean coast is seen as a project that will change the balance of power in the region.
Oil exploration in Somali waters. The seismic surveys and drilling preparations carried out by Türkiye mean a new actor in the region’s energy competition.
The shortest way to stop these two projects is to pull away the ground on which the Federal Government of Somalia stands. Abu Dhabi considers it more in line with its own interests for Mogadishu to fall into the hands of Al-Shabaab before Türkiye brings these projects to life. In this scenario, the withdrawal of Ugandan troops is not merely a budget decision, but a deliberate move that removes the Somali government’s security shield.
First, with Uganda’s withdrawal, the Somali government loses its most experienced military support against Al-Shabaab. Second, the UAE’s role in the Horn of Africa, stretching from Sudan to Somalia, is now being questioned not only in Khartoum but also in Mogadishu. The question of who is behind the decision that ended Uganda’s twenty-year presence is one of the questions that will shape Somalia’s fate in the months ahead.
Source:baraza brief.
